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UK GfK consumer sentiment drops to 11-month low on Iran war worries

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on March 27, 2026

3 min read

· Last updated: April 1, 2026

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UK GfK consumer sentiment drops to 11-month low on Iran war worries
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LONDON, March 27 (Reuters) - British consumer sentiment weakened to its lowest in nearly a year in March as households fretted about the potential impact of the Iran war on the economy and the

UK GfK Consumer Confidence Drops Amid Iran Conflict and Inflation Fears

British Consumer Sentiment Hits Yearly Low in March 2025

LONDON, March 27 (Reuters) - British consumer sentiment weakened to its lowest in nearly a year in March as households fretted about the potential impact of the Iran war on the economy and the possibility of sharp price rises, according to a closely watched monthly survey.

GfK Consumer Confidence Index: Key Findings

GfK's consumer confidence index, the longest-running survey of its kind in Britain, fell to -21 in March from -19 in February. This was its lowest reading since Britons were hit by a wave of increases in household bills in April 2025 but less of a decline than economists polled by Reuters had forecast.

Economic Outlook and Public Sentiment

"People simply do not feel the economy is robust enough to ride out the knock-on effects from the Middle East conflict," said Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK.

The sharpest drop was in households' assessment of the general economic situation over the next 12 months, which fell by 6 points, while their view of their own personal finances was little changed from last month.

Impact of Rising Oil Prices and Government Response

Many Britons have been feeling the impact of higher petrol prices after a 50% rise in the cost of oil since the start of the conflict at the end of February, and the government has announced limited support for poorer households reliant on heating oil.

But much of the effect will only come if the conflict lasts, as regulated household energy tariffs are capped until July.

Inflation Forecasts and Household Expectations

The Bank of England forecasts inflation will rise towards 3.5% in the middle of the year, while on Thursday the OECD revised up its forecast for British inflation by more than for most other countries to show it averaging 4% this year.

The GfK survey showed a relatively modest rise in household inflation expectations to their highest since November, in contrast to one from Citi and YouGov on Tuesday which showed the biggest jump in more than 20 years.

Spending and Savings Trends

GfK also reported a 4-point drop in households' willingness to make major purchases and a 6-point rise in their savings rate.

Future Outlook and Expert Commentary

"Unless there's a swift resolution to the conflict, or government schemes such as additional support with energy bills ... this ripple of fear we are seeing in the March data has the danger of turning into a flood," Bellamy said.

(Reporting by David Milliken)

Key Takeaways

  • GfK’s UK consumer confidence index dropped to –21 in March, its weakest since April 2025, amid heightened concerns about the Iran conflict’s economic ripple effects on inflation and energy costs.(en.wikipedia.org)
  • Surging Brent crude prices—exceeding US$100 per barrel in early March—have driven petrol costs upward, stoking consumer anxiety and lowering willingness to make major purchases.(en.wikipedia.org)
  • Macro forecasts suggest inflation will remain elevated: the OECD sees UK inflation among the highest in the G7 in 2026, while the UK budget watchdog warns the energy shock could add about 1 percentage point to annual inflation.(uk.finance.yahoo.com)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What caused the drop in UK consumer sentiment in March 2025?
The drop was caused by concerns about the economic impact of the Iran war, potential price rises, and higher petrol costs.
How low did the GfK consumer confidence index fall in March?
The GfK consumer confidence index fell to -21 in March, its lowest since April 2025.
How have household spending plans changed according to the GfK survey?
The survey showed a 4-point drop in willingness to make major purchases and a 6-point rise in the household savings rate.

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