Finance

UK inflation seen at 2.3% in 2026, Reeves says

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on March 3, 2026

1 min read

· Last updated: April 2, 2026

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UK inflation seen at 2.3% in 2026, Reeves says
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LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - British consumer price inflation is set to average 2.3% in 2026, according to estimates from the Office for Budget Responsibility, finance minister Rachel Reeves said in a

UK Inflation to Average 2.3% in 2026 According to OBR Forecasts

Overview of UK Inflation Forecasts and Economic Outlook

Latest OBR Projections for Inflation

LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - British consumer price inflation is set to average 2.3% in 2026, according to estimates from the Office for Budget Responsibility, finance minister Rachel Reeves said in a budget update speech on Tuesday.

Comparison with Previous Forecasts

In November, when Reeves announced a full budget, the OBR said it expected inflation of 2.5% this year.

Recent Inflation Trends

Since then, inflation readings have come in lower than expected and is likely to fall close to the Bank of England's 2% target in April.

Long-Term Inflation Expectations

Forecasts for 2027 and 2028

The OBR said it now expected inflation in 2027 and 2028 of 2.0%, in line with November's forecasts.

Potential Risks and Global Factors

Impact of Middle East Conflict on Energy Prices

The watchdog's forecasts were made before the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East which has pushed up global energy prices and raised concerns among investors about a fresh rise in inflaton.

(Reporting by David Milliken Writing by William Schomberg; editing by William James)

Key Takeaways

  • OBR revises UK inflation forecast for 2026 down to 2.3%, previously 2.5%
  • Inflation expected to reach the 2% target in 2027 and 2028, consistent with prior view
  • Rising energy prices amid Middle East conflict present a potential upside risk to inflation outlook

References

Frequently Asked Questions

Who announced the latest UK inflation estimates?
Finance minister Rachel Reeves announced the estimates during a budget update speech.
What are the inflation expectations for 2027 and 2028?
Inflation is expected to be 2.0% in both 2027 and 2028 according to the OBR.

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