Finance

UK wage growth cools by less than expected in 3 months to February

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on April 21, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: April 21, 2026

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UK wage growth cools by less than expected in 3 months to February
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LONDON, April 21 (Reuters) - British wage growth, excluding bonuses, slowed by slightly less than expected to 3.6% in annual terms in the three months to February, the Office for National Statistics

UK labour market cools by less than expected in three months to February

Labour Market Trends and Economic Implications

Labour Market Overview

April 21 (Reuters) - Britain's labour market cooled only slightly in three months to February with earnings growth easing by less than forecast and the jobless rate falling unexpectedly although that drop reflected rising numbers of students not looking for work rather than rising employment.

Earnings Growth and Expectations

Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, fell to 3.6% in annual terms over the three months to February from 3.8% in the three months to January, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had mostly expected regular average weekly earnings growth of 3.5%.

Bank of England's Perspective

The Bank of England is watching wages data carefully as it gauges inflation pressure in Britain's economy which investors view as highly vulnerable to the jump in energy prices caused by the war in Iran.

Unemployment Rate and Workforce Activity

Unexpected Drop in Unemployment

Economists said they were surprised by a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.9% from 5.2%. The Reuters poll had pointed to no change.

Factors Behind the Unemployment Figures

The ONS said the fall reflected a 169,000 increase in people considered to be inactive - or out of work and no looking for a job - over the three months to February, with employment also rising by 24,000.

Student Inactivity

Rising numbers of students who are not looking for work accounted for more than three-quarters of the shift into inactivity among 16-64 year-olds, the data showed.

Policy Responses and Outlook

BoE Policymakers' Views

BoE policymakers take different views over how much the weakness in the labour market will help to neutralise rising expectations of inflation among consumers.

Governor and Chief Economist Statements

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank should keep a clear eye on risks to growth and jobs as well as inflation when making their next decision on rates.

The central bank's chief economist Huw Pill has emphasised that keeping inflation under control is the BoE's primary goal, and has criticised his colleagues "wait-and-see" messaging.

(Reporting by Andy BruceEditing by William Schomberg)

Key Takeaways

  • Regular pay growth softened to 3.6% in the three months to February, just above the 3.5% forecast and down from 3.8% in January (moneyweek.com).
  • The weakening labour market entering 2026—marked by the slowest nominal wage growth since late 2021—now faces renewed inflation risks from soaring energy prices after the Iran war outbreak (moneyweek.com).
  • The IMF has downgraded the UK’s GDP growth to just 0.8% for 2026 and warned that persistent energy-driven inflation will likely delay interest rate cuts, complicating the Bank of England’s policy path (moneyweek.com).

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the rate of UK wage growth in the three months to February?
UK wage growth, excluding bonuses, slowed to 3.6% annually in the three months to February.
How did the wage growth compare to economists’ expectations?
Wage growth was slightly higher than expected, as most economists had forecast 3.5%.
Why have inflation pressures increased in the UK?
Inflation pressures have increased due to the jump in energy prices caused by the war in the Middle East.
How has the Bank of England responded to recent wage and inflation trends?
The Bank of England has delayed forecasts for cutting borrowing costs, due to emerging inflation risks and a weaker economic backdrop.
Will UK workers find it harder to demand higher pay increases?
Officials suggest the weak economic environment may make it more difficult for workers to negotiate larger pay raises.

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