Bond Markets on Edge Amid Xi's Military Display and Economic Concerns
Market Reactions to Geopolitical Events
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rocky Swift
Impact on Bond Markets
A day after U.S. President Donald Trump re-emerged in the Oval Office to dispel rumours about his health, Chinese President Xi Jinping made a defiant show of strength at his nation's largest ever military parade.
Stock Market Outlook
Trump returned from days of public absence to face court challenges to his tariff policies, immigrant deportations, and ability to fire any public official he pleases.
Key Economic Indicators
The optics were very different in Beijing, as Xi, Russia's Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Kim Jong Un watched processions of missiles, tanks and drones. Kim even followed the "bring your daughter to work" tradition, showing off to the world his potential successor and evidence that autocracies still have a lot of life in them.
Away from geopolitics, bond markets are again sounding alarm over mounting government deficits and debt piles. U.S. Treasury yields ticked up in Asian trading and Japan's 30-year yields reached an all-time high.
Sterling sank even lower after a 1.1% slide on Tuesday when 30-year gilt yields soared to the highest since 1998.
With stocks shaky and bonds looking perilous, you can always count on gold. The precious metal hit an all-time high of $3,546.99 in the Asian trading day.
On the data front, purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) for the euro zone and Britain will lead the way, with July JOLTS figures in the United States to follow as a prelude to key nonfarm payrolls on Friday.
Markets are pricing in an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction in the Federal Reserve's key policy rate this month, and weak labour data would increase the odds for more cuts.
Equity futures are pointing to openings in positive territory in Europe, with the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 contracts up 0.34% at 5,317, German DAX futures gaining 0.3% to 23,609, and FTSE futures inching up 0.1% at 9,151.
And keeping on the positive theme, Trump sounded a conciliatory note to Xi, posting on social media: "Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un as you conspire against the United States of America."
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
- PMIs for Britain, euro zone, Chicago
- Bank of England's Sarah Breeden and Catherine Mann speak at separate events
- European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks
- Euro zone PPI inflation (July)
- France: Reopening of 3-month, 4-month, 6-month and 11-month government debt auctions
- Germany: Reopening of 7-month, 2-year, 7-year and 10-year government debt auctions
- Britain: - Reopening of 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 3-year government debt auctions
- Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak include St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
- U.S. data durable goods and JOLTS job openings for July
(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
