Trade War Hiatus: Back to Economic Grind in Markets
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rocky Swift
With markets given another reprieve from a global trade war, attention refocuses on more quotidian cues, like economic data and corporate earnings.
Six weeks into the turmoil spurred by U.S. President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, the recurring lessons seem to be: wait for the details and buy the dip.
The China and U.S. rapprochement, resulting in a suspension of the worst tariffs between the world's two biggest economies for 90 days, was better than expected, and reverberated in Asian equity markets with strong gains in Japan after a rally in the United States.
And while a Trump social media post on Sunday about high U.S. drug prices caused a massive selloff in Japanese pharma shares on Monday, the actual executive order puts the bullseye more on cheaper drugs overseas, prompting a bounce back in healthcare stocks on the Nikkei.
Keep an eye on the European pharma stock index, which has outperformed the broader index so far this year.
Trump's comments about a pricey "fat shot drug", presumably speaking of injectable obesity treatments from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, could mean pressure for cost cuts in the U.S. or increases in Europe.
Or both. Comments from Bayer AG after first-quarter results today may give a read on how the German healthcare giant plans to navigate the uncertain road ahead.
The U.S. dollar was slightly weaker in Asia, but still held most of its gains against the yen, euro and Swiss franc after the trade truce was announced.
The policy whipsaw and doubt about what lies after the next three months remain as drags on investment sentiment. Equity futures point to a muted open in Europe and a backslide in the U.S.
Analysts are expecting to see a recovery in German investor sentiment when the ZEW economic research institute releases its data for May today, after tariff concerns sent morale to the lowest since the start of the Ukraine war.
In the U.S., Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will provide a signal about the timing of potential rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Traders are pricing in 57 basis points of cuts this year, down from over 100 basis points in mid-April.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
- UK employment (March)
- BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, chief economist Huw Pill speak at separate events
- Germany ZEW business sentiment (May)
- U.S. CPI inflation (April)
- U.S. earnings: Under Armour, Venture Global
- European earnings: Bayer, On Holding
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(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)
