Finance

ECB cuts inflation, growth projections

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on June 5, 2025

1 min read

· Last updated: January 23, 2026

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ECB cuts inflation, growth projections
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ECB Lowers Growth and Inflation Forecasts Amid Economic Challenges

FRANKFURT (Reuters) -The European Central Bank cut some of its growth and inflation projections on Thursday as the fallout from a global trade war is likely to prove a drag for the 20-nation euro zone.

Inflation is now seen falling further below the ECB's 2% target next year as lower energy costs, a stronger euro and weak economic growth all weigh on prices.

Price growth will then rebound in the following year and come back to target, the ECB predicted.

A muted outlook for both economic growth and inflation is why the ECB cut interest rates again on Thursday, lowering the deposit rate by a combined 2 percentage points since last June.

That may not be enough, however. Markets see between one and two more rate cuts this year as growth remains anaemic and there is no meaningful rebound on the horizon.

The following are the ECB's projections for inflation and economic growth. Previous projections from March are in brackets.

2025 2026 2027

GDP Growth: 0.9 (0.9%) 1.1 (1.2%) 1.3% (1.3%)

Inflation: 2.0 (2.3%) 1.6 (1.9%) 2.0% (2.0%)

(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Catherine Evans)

Key Takeaways

  • ECB cuts growth and inflation projections for the euro zone.
  • Inflation expected to fall below 2% target next year.
  • Interest rates cut by 2 percentage points since last June.
  • Markets anticipate further rate cuts due to weak growth.
  • Economic challenges include global trade war impacts.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the ECB do regarding its growth and inflation projections?
The ECB cut some of its growth and inflation projections due to the ongoing impact of a global trade war affecting the euro zone.
What is the ECB's inflation target for next year?
Inflation is now expected to fall further below the ECB's 2% target next year, influenced by lower energy costs and weak economic growth.
How much has the ECB lowered interest rates since last June?
The ECB has lowered the deposit rate by a combined 2 percentage points since last June in response to a muted economic outlook.
What are the ECB's projections for GDP growth in 2025?
The ECB projects GDP growth of 0.9% for 2025, which remains unchanged from previous estimates.
What factors are contributing to the ECB's decision to cut rates?
The ECB's decision to cut rates is driven by anaemic growth and the lack of a meaningful economic rebound on the horizon.

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