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Italy's population stops shrinking after 12 years, thanks to migration

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on March 31, 2026

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· Last updated: April 1, 2026

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Italy's population stops shrinking after 12 years, thanks to migration
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By Valentina Consiglio ROME, March 31 (Reuters) - Italy's population has stabilised after 12 years of decline, with immigration almost entirely offsetting a shrinking number of births, while life

Italy Population Stabilizes After 12 Years of Decline Thanks to Migration

ISTAT Reports on Italy's Demographic Trends

By Valentina Consiglio

Population Stabilization Driven by Migration

ROME, March 31 (Reuters) - Italy's population has stabilised after 12 years of decline, with immigration almost entirely offsetting a shrinking number of births, while life expectancy continues to rise, national statistics agency ISTAT said on Tuesday.

Preliminary data showed the resident population stood at 58.94 million on January 1 this year, virtually unchanged from a year earlier, ISTAT said in its annual demographic report.

Role of Migration in Population Trends

"Italy remains a country where only very positive net migration can offset a largely negative natural change and where the population continues to age," the statistics bureau said.

Without a sustained inflows of migrants the population will resume shrinking, intensifying long‑term pressures on the labour market and public finances, it added.

The influx of immigrants has taken place under the right-wing government of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has taken a tough line on undocumented migrants while also increasing work visas for non-EU citizens.

Birth and Death Rates: A Closer Look

Births Drop to a New Record Low

BIRTHS DROP TO A NEW RECORD LOW

Births dropped to 355,000 in 2025, down 3.9% from the previous year to a new record low since the country's unification in 1861, while deaths held broadly steady at 652,000, yielding a negative balance of close to 300,000 people.

Fertility and Demographic Challenges

Fertility fell further to an average of 1.14 children per woman, among the lowest levels in Europe and well below the replacement rate of 2.1, reflecting delayed parenthood and a shrinking pool of potential parents.

Migration and Foreign Population Growth

Net immigration stood at 296,000, with arrivals from abroad reaching 440,000, while emigration fell sharply to 144,000, the lowest level recorded in the past decade.

The foreign resident population rose by 188,000 to 5.56 million.

Life Expectancy in Italy

Life expectancy increased further after the COVID-19 pandemic years, reaching 81.7 years for men and 85.7 for women, placing Italy among the longest-living countries in the European Union, ISTAT said.

(Reporting by Valentina Consiglio, editing by Gavin Jones)

Key Takeaways

  • Italy’s population stabilized at roughly 58.94 million on January 1, 2026, ending a 12-year decline, with net migration nearly fully compensating for a persistent natural decrease (fewer births than deaths) (ansa.it).
  • Births dropped to a historic low in 2025 at around 355,000 (‑3.9% year‑on‑year), while fertility hit 1.14 children per woman—among Europe’s lowest and well below replacement level—highlighting delayed parenthood and a shrinking pool of potential parents (ansa.it).
  • Net migration stood at approximately 296,000 in 2025, with about 440,000 arrivals and 144,000 departures; foreign residents rose by some 188,000 to 5.56 million (istat.it).
  • Life expectancy is increasing post‑COVID, reaching about 81.7 years for men and 85.7 for women, placing Italy among the EU’s longest‑living nations (english.news.cn).
  • Despite short‑term stabilization, projections remain bleak: even with current levels of migration, ISTAT forecasts population drops to roughly 54.7 million by 2050 and 45.8 million by 2080, underscoring long‑term pressures on labor, pensions, and public finances (english.news.cn).

References

Frequently Asked Questions

Why has Italy's population stopped shrinking after 12 years?
Italy's population stabilized as positive net migration almost entirely offset the decline in births according to ISTAT.
What is Italy's current population as reported by ISTAT?
The resident population stands at 58.94 million as of January 1 this year.
How have birth and death rates impacted Italy's population?
Births fell to a record low of 355,000 while deaths held steady at 652,000, creating a negative natural balance offset by immigration.
What is Italy's fertility rate and how does it compare to Europe?
Italy's fertility rate is 1.14 children per woman, one of the lowest in Europe and well below the replacement level of 2.1.
How has net immigration contributed to Italy's demographics?
Net immigration was 296,000, mainly due to an increase in arrivals and a decrease in emigration, raising the foreign resident population to 5.56 million.

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