UK Lowers Population Growth Estimate Amid Slowing Immigration and Ageing Demographics
Revised Population Projections and Their Implications
By David Milliken
Population Growth Forecasts
LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - The United Kingdom's population is likely to grow to 71.0 million by mid-2034, below a previous projection of 72.2 million due to lower immigration assumptions, the country's statistics office said on Tuesday.
Role of Net Immigration
Net immigration looks set to add 2.2 million people to the UK's population of 69.3 million between mid-2024 and mid-2034, while there would be a drag of 450,000 from deaths exceeding births, the Office for National Statistics said.
Net migration was likely to remain the only source of expected population growth, the ONS said.
Fiscal and Policy Impacts
The lower expected population growth could add to the fiscal headwinds that will face finance minister Rachel Reeves in her autumn budget.
However, the agency said the projections should not be treated as a definitive forecast as they are largely based on an extrapolation of recent trends and do not attempt to predict future changes in government policy or other factors driving migration, fertility or mortality.
Demographic Trends
Ageing Population
Tuesday's projection showed the extent to which Britain's population is ageing. The number of pensioners is expected to rise by 15% to 14.2 million between 2024 and 2034, while the number of children aged under 16 will fall by 13%.
Fertility and Immigration Assumptions
The ONS also trimmed its assumption for fertility to 1.42 children per woman from 1.45 in its last projections made two years ago.
Net Immigration Adjustments
There was a more substantial cut to the ONS' assumption for future rates of net immigration to 230,000 a year from 340,000 in the 2024 report.
"This reflects the sharp decrease in net migration since it peaked in 2023, as well as expert advice," it said.
Recent Migration Patterns and Regional Differences
Post-Pandemic Immigration Trends
Britain saw immigration surge after the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting pent-up demand as well as a decision by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government to relax rules particularly for low-paid care workers and their families.
After net immigration approached 1 million in the 12 months to June 2023, rules were tightened and it fell to 204,000 in the 12 months to June 2025.
Regional Population Growth
The population of England is expected to grow faster than elsewhere in the UK. England's population is projected to rise by 2.9% by mid-2034, compared to growth of 1.0% in Wales, 0.6% in Northern Ireland and 0.3% in Scotland.
(Reporting by David Milliken; editing by William Schomberg)
